اقتصاد و برنامه ریزی شهری

اقتصاد و برنامه ریزی شهری

آینده‌نگاری تاب‌آوری استان تهران؛ تحلیل تعارضات کنشگران و اولویت‌بندی راهبردهای تطبیق‌پذیر

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 کارشناسی ارشد برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌ای دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران
2 استادیار، دانشکدۀ معماری و شهرسازی دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
دستیابی به تاب‌آوری در استان تهران با چالش‌هایی از نوع مسائل بدخیم و ریشه در پیچیدگی‌های ساختاری و عدم‌ قطعیت‌های سیستماتیک مواجه است. برنامه‌ریزی سنتی به ‌دلیل نگاه تکنوکراتیک و نادیده گرفتن اقتصاد سیاسی فضا، در این زمینه دچار بن‌بست شده است. این پژوهش با هدف تبیین انتقادی پیوند میان نیروهای ساختاری و اراده کنشگران، این مسئله را واکاوی می‌کند که چگونه تضاد منافع و ائتلاف‌های قدرت، به قفل‌شدگی نهادی منجر می‌شود و منطقه را به سمت سناریوهای بحرانی سوق می‌دهد. روش‌شناسی پژوهش، مبتنی بر آینده‌نگاری استراتژیک است که در چهار مرحله اجرا شد: ابتدا با روش دلفی و ابزار MICMAC، متغیرهای کلیدی شناسایی شدند؛ سپس آرایش قدرت و تعارض‌های کنشگران با MACTOR تحلیل شد؛ در ادامه، سناریوهای آینده با Scenario Wizard تدوین شد و در نهایت، عملکرد راهبردها با مدل Multipol مورد سنجش قرار گرفت. یافته‌ها نشان داد سیستم تاب‌آوری تهران ناپایدار است و آیندۀ آن توسط شش پیشران کلیدی (اقتصادی، اجتماعی ـ مسکن، زیرساختی، فرهنگی، محیط‌ زیستی و امنیتی) شکل می‌گیرد. تحلیل کنشگران، شکافی عمیق میان بلوک دولتی و نهادهای اجتماعی را آشکار ساخت که به انسداد نهادی منجر شده است. ارزیابی سناریوها، احتمال بالای وقوع سناریوی فروپاشی و بحران را نشان می‌دهد. راهبردهای مبتنی بر توسعۀ هوشمند زیرساختی و اقتصاد دانش‌بنیان، به دلیل اصطکاک سیاسی کمتر، به عنوان راهبردهای تطبیق‌پذیر شناسایی شدند. نتیجه‌گیری نهایی تأکید می‌کند که تاب‌آوری تهران یک فرایند سیاسی مذاکره است. برای عبور از سناریوی فروپاشی، گذار از مدیریت فنی بحران به مدیریت سیاسی تعارض‌ها و به رسمیت شناختن عاملیت نهادهای اجتماعی، ضرورتی اجتناب‌ناپذیر است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Strategic foresight for resilience in the Tehran Province: analyzing actor conflicts and prioritizing adaptive strategies

نویسندگان English

Amin Mohtajollah Yazdi 1
MohammadSaleh ShokouhiBidhendi 2
1 School of Architecture and Environmental Design, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran
2 School of Architecture and Environmental Design, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Achieving resilience in the Tehran province is impeded by wicked problems rooted in structural complexities and systemic uncertainties. Traditional planning, constrained by a technocratic lens and a disregard for the political economy of space, has reached an impasse. This research provides a critical explanation of the nexus between structural forces and actor agency, exploring how interest conflicts and power coalitions lead to institutional lock-in, steering the region toward crisis-ridden scenarios. The methodology utilizes strategic foresight across four stages: identifying key variables through Delphi and MICMAC; analyzing actor alignments and conflicts via MACTOR; formulating future scenarios using Scenario Wizard; and evaluating strategic performance with Multipol. Findings reveal that Tehran’s resilience system is inherently unstable, shaped by six primary drivers: economic, socio-housing, infrastructural, cultural, environmental, and security. Actor analysis highlights a profound rift between the state bloc and social institutions, resulting in institutional paralysis. Scenario evaluations indicate a high probability of collapse and crisis scenarios. Strategies centered on smart infrastructure and a knowledge-based economy were identified as the most adaptive due to their lower political friction. The study concludes that resilience in Tehran is a political process of negotiation. To avert the collapse scenario, a transition from technical crisis management to the political management of conflicts, alongside the formal recognition of the agency of social institutions, is an unavoidable necessity.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

actors
futures studies
MACTOR
MICMAC
Multipol
resilience
Scenario Wizard
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دوره 7، شماره 10
دی 1405
صفحه 64-86

  • تاریخ دریافت 04 اسفند 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 15 اردیبهشت 1405
  • تاریخ پذیرش 29 خرداد 1405