اقتصاد و برنامه ریزی شهری

اقتصاد و برنامه ریزی شهری

کشف ارزش و قیمت‌گذاری زمین‌های مسکونی در حریم شهرها: ارائۀ اصول پایه و فرمول تعمیم‌پذیر قیمت به صورت شناور

نوع مقاله : نظری و بنیادین

نویسندگان
1 کارشناس ارشد‌، معماری اسلامی، گروه هنر و معماری اسلامی، دانشکدۀ هنر و معماری اسلامی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام رضا‌(ع)، مشهد، ایران
2 دانشیار گروه شهرسازی، واحد مشهد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مشهد، ایران‌
چکیده
قیمت‌گذاری زمین‌های مسکونی در حریم شهرها به دلیل پیچیدگی‌های ساختاری، نوسانات بازار و تأثیرپذیری از سیاست‌های متغیر شهری، همواره با چالش‌های بنیادین از جمله عدم شفافیت، انعطاف‌ناپذیری مدل‌های سنتی و فقدان معیارهای علمی دقیق مواجه بوده است. این پژوهش با هدف طراحی یک مدل علمی و عملیاتی برای قیمت‌گذاری شناور زمین در این مناطق تدوین شده است. مطالعۀ حاضر با بهره‌گیری از روش تحقیق آمیخته، به تبیین و تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر ارزش زمین می‌پردازد. در بخش کیفی، با استفاده از مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختاریافته با خبرگان حوزۀ معماری، شهرسازی و اقتصاد زمین و همچنین، به‌کارگیری تکنیک دلفی، عوامل کلیدی شناسایی و دسته‌بندی شدند. سپس، با استفاده از تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی، وزن نسبی هر یک از این عوامل تعیین شد. در بخش کمی، با جمع‌آوری داده‌های ثانویه از معاملات ثبت‌شده و مشخصات کالبدی ـ مکانی قطعات زمین در مناطق نمونه، از مدل قیمت‌گذاری هدونیک و تحلیل رگرسیون چندمتغیره برای آزمون فرضیه‌ها و تعیین میزان تأثیر هر متغیر بر قیمت نهایی استفاده شد. یافته‌های اصلی پژوهش به ارائۀ یک فرمول ریاضی پویا و شناور منجر شد که متغیرهایی نظیر دسترسی به خدمات و زیرساخت‌ها، ویژگی‌های کالبدی، محدودیت‌های قانونی و طرح‌های توسعۀ شهری را در یک چارچوب یکپارچه لحاظ می‌کند. نتایج اعتبارسنجی نشان داد مدل پیشنهادی در مقایسه با روش‌های ارزیابی سنتی، از دقت و انطباق بیشتری با واقعیت‌های بازار، برخوردار است و می‌تواند به ‌عنوان ابزاری کارآمد برای سیاست‌گذاران شهری، سرمایه‌گذاران و شهروندان به منظور درک بهتر پویایی‌های بازار زمین و اتخاذ تصمیمات آگاهانه به کار گرفته شود و به توسعۀ پایدار در حریم شهرها کمک کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Unveiling value and price of residential land in urban fringe: presenting foundational principles and a generalizable floating price formula

نویسندگان English

Hadi Farhangdoust 1
Sanaz Saeidi Mofrad 2
1 Master of Islamic Architecture, Department of Islamic Art and Architecture, Faculty of Islamic Art and Architecture, Imam Reza International University, Mashhad, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Urbanism, Ma.C., Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده English

The valuation of residential land within the urban fringe consistently confronts fundamental challenges, including opacity, inflexibility of conventional models, and a deficiency of precise scientific criteria, all due to structural complexities, market volatility, and susceptibility to shifting urban policies. This research was designed to devise a scientific and operational model for dynamic land pricing in these peripheral zones. Utilizing a mixed research method, the study delineates and analyzes the land value determinants. The qualitative phase involved identifying and categorizing key factors through semi-structured interviews with experts in architecture, urban planning, and land economics, further refined by the Delphi technique. Subsequently, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was employed to determine the relative weight of each determinant. For the quantitative phase, secondary data from recorded transactions and the physical-spatial characteristics of land parcels in sample districts were analyzed. The Hedonic pricing model, combined with multiple regression analysis, was applied to test hypotheses and quantify the influence of each variable on the final price. The primary outcome of this research is a dynamic, floating mathematical formula that cohesively integrates variables such as access to services and infrastructure, physical characteristics, regulatory constraints, and urban development plans. Validation confirms that the proposed model offers better accuracy and congruence with market realities than the traditional appraisal methods. It is intended to serve as an efficacious tool for urban policymakers, investors, and citizens, fostering a more profound understanding of land market dynamics, enabling informed decision-making, and promoting sustainable development in urban peripheries.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Hedonic Model
Mixed-Methods
Property Valuation
Urban Fringe Land Policy
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دوره 7، شماره 3
خرداد 1405
صفحه 110-151

  • تاریخ دریافت 17 مهر 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 25 آبان 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 27 آبان 1404