اقتصاد و برنامه ریزی شهری

اقتصاد و برنامه ریزی شهری

مدل‌سازی پیچیدگی فضایی عوامل مؤثر بر وضعیت تراکم ساختمانی و فرم در کلان‌شهر اصفهان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، گروه جغرافیا، پردیس البرز، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
2 استاد، گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشکدۀ جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
3 دانشیار گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشکدۀ جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
نسبت سطح زیربنا و فرم کالبدی در کلان‌شهرهای درحال‌توسعه مانند اصفهان نتیجۀ‌ تعامل پیچیدۀ متغیرهای کالبدی، کاربری، دسترسی و نهادی است که عملکرد تنظیمی FAR را مخدوش و نابرابری فضایی تولید کرده است. پژوهش پیش رو از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از نظر روش‌شناختی، توصیفی ـ تحلیلی، آمیخته و موردپژوهی است. بازۀ مورد بررسی، داده‌های 1391_1401 شامل آمار سرشماری، لایه‌های پارسل تراکم و کاربری، طرح‌های شهری و گزارش‌های شهرداری است. قلمروی مطالعه به شبکه‌ای از سلول‌های شش‌ضلعی با اندازۀ بهینه 3/88 هکتار تقسیم و 695 واحد متریک پرداخته است. ابزارهای مورد تحلیل شامل ArcGIS،‏ Fragstats،‏ EViews،‏ Excel و Google Earth مبتنی بر استخراج ۴ متریک اصلی (FAR، تراکم جمعیت، درصد اشغال، شاخص تنوع عمودی)، تحلیل مؤلفه‌های اصلی برای تشکیل شاخص ترکیبی CDFI، آزمون خودهمبستگی فضایی، و مدل‌سازی مکانی (MGWR،‏ SAR/SEM) همراه با چارچوب شبیه‌سازی (EUM/CA و ABM) سناریو بوده است. برابر یافته‌ها، دو مؤلفۀ نخست PCA، 69/74 درصد واریانس متریک‌ها را تبیین کردند. شاخص ترکیبی CDFI با دامنۀ 0/503 ـ 0/900 (بالاترین: منطقه ۴ = 0/900؛ پایین‌ترین: منطقۀ ۱۴ = 0/503)، خودهمبستگی فضایی معنادار (Moran’s I; R²≈0.91) و ناهمگنی مکانی قوی بر اثر متغیرهای دسترسی و اختلاط کاربری را نشان داد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد شبکۀ معابر، دسترسی به حمل‌ونقل و اختلاط کاربری بیشترین سهم را در ساختار تراکم دارند. از این‌رو، FAR باید از چارچوب‌ درآمدزایی شهرداری جدا شده و در قالب سیاست‌های محل‌محور و چندمعیاره مبتنی بر تفکیک نهادی تنظیم‌گری و درآمدزایی، تنوع‌بخشی درآمدهای شهری، هدفمندسازی مشوق‌های تراکمی بر اساس CDFI، حفظ بافت تاریخی و تقویت زیرساخت‌های سبز و حمل‌ونقل عمومی بازتنظیم شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Modeling spatial complexity of factors influencing FAR and urban morphological configurations in Isfahan metropolitan

نویسندگان English

Khalil Askarpour 1
Hossein Hataminezhad 2
Saeed Zanganeh Shahraki 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate in Geography and Urban Planning, Department of Geography, Alborz Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Human Geography and Planning, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Human Geography and Planning, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

The ratio of floor area to built form (FAR) in rapidly developing metropolitan areas, such as Isfahan, results from a complex interplay of morphological, land-use, accessibility, and institutional variables that distorts FAR’s regulatory function and generates spatial inequality. This applied study employs a mixed, descriptive-analytical case-study design. The temporal scope spans 2012–2022 and includes census data, density and land-use parcel layers, urban plans, and municipal reports. The study area was divided into an optimized hexagonal grid (3.88 ha cells), producing 695 metric units. The tools analyzed included ArcGIS, Fragstats, EViews, Excel, and Google Earth, based on the extraction of four main metrics (FAR, population density, occupancy percentage, and vertical diversity index), principal component analysis to form a composite CDFI index, spatial autocorrelation test, and spatial modeling (MGWR, SAR/SEM) along with scenario simulation frameworks (EUM/CA and ABM). According to the results, the first two PCA components explained 69.74% of metric variance. The CDFI ranged 0.503–0.900 (max: District 4 = 0.900; min: District 14 = 0.503), displayed significant spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I) and strong spatial heterogeneity driven by accessibility and land-use mixing (R² ≈ 0.91). Findings indicated that road networks, transport accessibility, and land-use mix dominate density structure. Therefore, FAR governance should be decoupled from municipal revenue, reframed as place-based and multi-criteria policies, based on institutionally separating regulatory and fiscal roles, diversifying municipal income, targeting density incentives via CDFI, preserving historic fabric, and reinforcing green infrastructure and public transit.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

CDFI
Floor area ratio (FAR)
Isfahan metropolitan
Morphological configurations
Spatial metrics
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دوره 7، شماره 5
مرداد 1405
صفحه 82-104

  • تاریخ دریافت 07 مهر 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 27 مهر 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 07 آبان 1404