اقتصاد و برنامه ریزی شهری

اقتصاد و برنامه ریزی شهری

بررسی تأثیر هزینه‌های ساخت‌و‌ساز و قیمت زمین بر توسعۀ اقتصادی ایران با روش PCA

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
2 دانش‌آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
چکیده
هدف ‌پژوهش پیش رو، بررسی تأثیر هزینه‌های ساخت‌و‌ساز و قیمت زمین بر توسعۀ اقتصادی ایران طی سال‌های 1380 تا 1400 است. این پژوهش در حوزه اقتصاد کلان جای گرفته و در آن از متغیرهای نرخ رشد اقتصادی، ضریب جینی، نرخ بیکاری، شاخص رفاه لگاتوم و شاخص توسعۀ انسانی برای تشکیل شاخص توسعۀ اقتصادی با روش PCA استفاده شده است؛ همچنین برای هزینه‌های ساخت‌و‌ساز از متغیر برآورد متوسط هزینۀ بنا و برای قیمت زمین از شاخص قیمت زمین بهره‌گیری شده است. مدل برآوردی این پژوهش ARDL بوده و برای تجزیه‌و‌‌تحلیل داده‌ها نیز از آزمون‌های آمار توصیفی، مانایی ADF، فروض کلاسیک، شکست ساختاری CUSUM، کرانه‌ها (Bound Test) و تصحیح خطای مدل ECM بهره گرفته شده است. یافته‌های این پژوهش نشان داد هزینه‌های ساخت‌و‌ساز و قیمت زمین بر توسعۀ اقتصادی ایران در دورۀ زمانی مورد نظر، رابطۀ منفی و معنادار داشته‌اند. شایان یادآوری است که محدودیت‌ این پژوهش مربوط به داده‌های آن است که تنها از داده‌های مناطق شهری ایران استفاده شده و آمار مربوط به مناطق روستایی در دسترس نیست.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

An analysis of the impact of construction cost and land price on the economic development of Iran using PCA

نویسندگان English

Nasrin Mansouri Najafabadi 1
Mehran Shahrkhani Tehrani 2
Mostafa Elmi Moghaddam 1
1 Assistant professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
2 Master’s graduate, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

This research aims to examine the impact of construction costs and land prices on economic development in Iran during the period from 1380 to 1400 M. This research falls within the field of macroeconomics. It employs variables such as economic growth rate, Gini coefficient, unemployment rate, Legatum Prosperity Index, and Human Development Index to construct an Economic Development Index using PCA; additionally, for construction cost, the average building cost estimate is used, and for land price, the land price index is utilized. The estimation model of this research is ARDL, and for analysis, data were also analyzed using descriptive statistics, ADF stationarity tests, classical assumptions, CUSUM structural break tests, the Bound Test, and the ECM error correction model. The findings of this study showed that the cost of construction and land price had a negative and significant relationship with the economic development of Iran during the period under consideration. It is worth noting that the limitation of this study lies in its data, as only data from urban areas of Iran were used, and statistics for rural areas were not available.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

construction cost
construction industry
economic development
Iranian economy
land price
PCA method
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دوره 7، شماره 7
در حال تکمیل
مهر 1405
صفحه 16-29

  • تاریخ دریافت 10 شهریور 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 01 آبان 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 05 آبان 1404