اقتصاد و برنامه ریزی شهری

اقتصاد و برنامه ریزی شهری

ارزیابی اثرات بهسازی انرژی ساختمان‌های شهری بر مصرف انرژی، انتشار آلاینده‌ها و عملکرد اقتصادی با استفاده از مدل‌سازی انرژی شهری (UBEM)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه برنامه‌ریزی محیط‌ زیست، پردیس بین‌المللی ارس، دانشگاه تهران، ارس، ایران
2 گروه مهندسی طراحی محیط‌ زیست، دانشکدۀ محیط‌ زیست، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
3 گروه مهندسی محیط زیست، دانشکدۀ محیط‌ زیست، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
4 گروه مهندسی سوانح، آموزش و سیستم‌های محیط‌ زیست، دانشکدۀ محیط‌ زیست، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
از مهم‌ترین عوامل تأثیر‌گذار در رشد افسارگسیخته و روزافزون شهرنشینی در بخش ساختمان، افزایش مصرف انرژی است. مدیریت این موضوع نیازمند به‌کارگیری رویکردهای کارآمد ارزیابی و بهینه‌سازی مصرف انرژی است. این مطالعه با هدف ارائۀ چارچوبی یکپارچه برای ارزیابی هم‌زمان عملکرد انرژی، پیامدهای محیط‌ زیستی و شاخص‌های اقتصادی در ساختمان‌های شهری شهر قزوین با تلفیق مدل‌سازی انرژی شهری (UBEM) و الزامات مبحث 19 مقررات ملی ساختمان انجام شده است. مدل‌سازی از رویکرد نمونه‌محور (Prototype-based UBEM ) بهره گرفته و کالیبراسیون مدل با داده‌های واقعی مصرف انرژی انجام پذیرفته است (CV(RMSE)= 3.4%, MAPE=3.3%). نتایج نشان داد اجرای سناریوی جامع بهینه‌سازی، مصرف انرژی ساختمان نمونه را تا 46/5 درصد کاهش می‌دهد. با تعمیم نتایج به ساختمان‌های مسکونی، تجاری و اداری هم‌تیپ در سطح شهر، سالانه بین 648 تا 792 گیگاوات‌ساعت صرفه‌جویی انرژی محقق می‌شود. این امر به کاهش مطلق انتشار سالانۀ آلاینده‌های CO₂ به میزان 125 هزار تن، SO2 به میزان 390 تن، NOx به میزان 390 تن و PM2.5 به میزان 96 تن می‌انجامد. تحلیل حساسیت یک‌طرفه نشان داد ضریب انتقال حرارت پوسته بیشترین تأثیر را بر مصرف انرژی شهری و قیمت حامل‌های انرژی بیشترین اثر را بر شاخص ارزش فعلی خالص دارد. نتایج این مطالعه بیانگر آن است که چارچوب پیشنهادی می‌تواند برای ارزیابی هم‌زمان پیامدهای انرژی، محیط‌ زیستی و اقتصادی سناریوهای بهسازی ساختمان‌های شهری مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Assessing the effects of urban building energy retrofits on energy consumption, pollutant emissions, and economic performance using urban building energy modeling (UBEM)

نویسندگان English

Farhood Jalali Serej 1
Hassan Darabi 2
Abdolreza Karbassi 3
Mohammad Javad Amiri 4
1 Department of Environmental Planning, Aras International Campus, University of Tehran, Aras, Iran
2 Department of Environmental Design Engineering, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
4 Department of Environmental Hazards, Education and Environmental Systems, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Rising energy consumption in the building sector is a key driver of urban energy demand and associated environmental pressures. Managing this trend requires effective evaluation and optimization strategies. This study develops an integrated framework that combines urban building energy modeling (UBEM) with the requirements of Iran’s National Building Regulations (Section 19) to assess energy performance, environmental impacts, and economic indicators simultaneously for Qazvin’s residential, commercial, and office buildings. We adopted a prototype-based UBEM approach and calibrated the model using actual energy consumption data, achieving a CV(RMSE) of 3.4% and a MAPE of 3.3%. Results show that implementing a comprehensive optimization scenario reduces energy consumption in the prototype building by 46.5%. When extrapolated to similar building typologies across the city, annual energy savings range between 648 and 792 GWh. This translates to absolute annual emission reductions of 125,000 tons of CO₂, 390 tons of SO₂, 390 tons of NOx, and 96 tons of PM2.5. A one-way sensitivity analysis indicates that the building envelope’s heat transfer coefficient (U-value) has the greatest influence on urban energy consumption, while energy carrier prices most significantly affect the net present value (NPV). The results indicated that the proposed framework could be used in the assessment of energy, environmental, and economic outcomes of urban building retrofit scenarios simultaneously.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Energy optimization
net present value (NPV)
pollutant emissions
prototype building
Section 19 of the Iranian National Building Regulations
sensitivity analysis
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دوره 8، شماره 3
در حال تکمیل
خرداد 1406
صفحه 62-75

  • تاریخ دریافت 26 مرداد 1405
  • تاریخ بازنگری 02 مهر 1405
  • تاریخ پذیرش 09 مهر 1405
  • تاریخ انتشار 01 خرداد 1406