اقتصاد و برنامه ریزی شهری

اقتصاد و برنامه ریزی شهری

تحلیل فضایی ـ زمانی الگوهای ترافیکی کلان‌شهرها با استفاده از الگوریتم تحلیل نقاط داغ نوظهور (EHSA): تحلیل داده‌های آنلاین کوتاه‌مدت (یک هفته) کلانشهر تهران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده
استاد گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشکدۀ جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
هدف: شناسایی، تحلیل و مدل‌سازی الگوهای فضایی ـ زمانی تراکم ترافیک در کلان‌شهر تهران با استفاده از رویکرد «تحلیل نقاط داغ نوظهور» (EHSA) بر پایۀ مکعب فضایی ـ زمانی. پژوهش حاضر به دنبال پاسخ به این پرسش است که الگوی فضایی ـ زمانی تراکم ترافیک تهران چه ساختاری دارد و کانون‌های پرتراکم و کم‌تراکم در فضا و زمان چگونه توزیع شده‌اند.
روش‌شناسی: داده‌های ترافیکی برخط معابر تهران در بازه زمانی دوم تا نهم اردیبهشت‌ماه ۱۴۰۵ (شامل ۲۵۹ مرحله ثبت با فاصلۀ ۳۰‌دقیقه‌ای) جمع‌آوری شد که حجم کل پایگاه داده به بیش از 7/9 میلیون رکورد رسید. پس از پیش‌پردازش و ساخت «مکعب فضایی ـ زمانی»، سه سطح تحلیل شامل محاسبۀ شاخص خودهمبستگی فضایی (I موران)، خوشه‌بندی High/Low و اجرای الگوریتم EHSA در محیط ArcGIS Pro انجام گرفت.
یافته‌ها: تحلیل‌ها نشان‌دهندۀ وجود خودهمبستگی فضایی مثبت و معنادار (z-score=212.41) در سطح اطمینان ۹۹ درصد است. الگوریتم EHSA هشت الگوی متمایز را آشکار ساخت: ۱. کانون‌های داغ: «کانون داغ پایدار» در منطقۀ ۱۰ و حوالی آن به عنوان بحرانی‌ترین نقطه؛ «کانون داغ تشدیدی» در مناطق ۲۱ و ۲۲ (نشان‌دهندۀ گذار به بحران)؛ و الگوهای نوسانی و پراکنده در حلقه‌های میانی. ۲. کانون‌های سرد: گسترده‌ترین الگو «سرد پراکنده» در مناطق ۲۲، ۲۰ و ۴ بود. همچنین، الگوهای «سرد تشدیدی» و «سرد کاهشی» در حاشیه‌های شهر شناسایی شدند. در مجموع، ترافیک تهران دارای ساختار هم‌مرکز چهارحلقه‌ای است که شدت تراکم از مرکز به پیرامون کاهش می‌یابد. نتیجه‌گیری: ترکیب داده‌های برخط با روش EHSA چارچوبی کارآمد برای پایش ترافیک فراهم می‌کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Spatio-temporal analysis of urban traffic patterns in metropolitan areas applying the emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA) algorithm: A short-term (one-week) analysis of online data from Tehran

نویسنده English

Hassanali Faraji Sabokbar
Human Geography and Planning Department, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Objective: To identify, analyze, and model the spatio-temporal patterns of traffic congestion in the Tehran metropolitan area using the emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA) approach based on a space-time cube framework. This study seeks to answer the question of what the spatio-temporal structure of traffic congestion in Tehran is and how high- and low-congestion hotspots are distributed across space and time.
Methodology: Online traffic data for Tehran’s road network were collected over the period from April 22 to April 29, 2026 (comprising 259 observation intervals with 30-minute time steps). The resulting dataset included more than 7.9 million records. After preprocessing and constructing a space-time cube, three levels of analysis were conducted: calculation of spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I), high/low clustering analysis, and implementation of the emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA) in ArcGIS Pro.
Results: The analyses revealed a statistically significant positive spatial autocorrelation (z-score = 212.41) at the 99% confidence level. The EHSA identified eight distinct patterns. Among hot spots, a “persistent hot spot” was detected in District 10 and its surrounding areas, representing the most critical congestion zone. An “intensifying hot spot” was observed in Districts 21 and 22, indicating a transition toward worsening congestion conditions. Additional oscillating and sporadic patterns were identified in the middle urban rings. Regarding cold spots, the most extensive pattern was “dispersed cold spots” in Districts 22, 20, and 4. Furthermore, “intensifying cold spots” and “diminishing cold spots” were detected in peripheral areas of the city. Overall, Tehran’s traffic exhibits a concentric four-ring structure, in which congestion intensity decreases from the urban core toward the periphery.
Conclusion: The integration of real-time traffic data with the EHSA method provides an efficient and robust framework for traffic monitoring and spatio-temporal congestion analysis.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Spatio-temporal analysis
urban traffic congestion
Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA)
Space-Time Cube
Alonso, W. (1964). Location and land use: Toward a general theory of land rent. Harvard University Press. https://isbnsearch.org/isbn/9780674729568
Anselin, L. (1995). Local indicators of spatial association—LISA. Geographical Analysis, 27(2), 93–115.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1995.tb00338.x
Barbosa, H., Barthelemy, M., Ghoshal, G., James, C. R., Lenormand, M., Louail, T., Ronaldo Menezes, José J. Ramasco, Filippo Simini, & Marcello Tomasini, M. (2018). Human mobility: Models and applications. Physics Reports, 734, 1–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physrep.2018.01.001
Cheng, T., Haworth, J., Anbaroglu, B., Tanaksaranond, G., & Wang, J. (2014). Spatiotemporal data mining. In M. M. Fischer & P. Nijkamp (Eds.), Handbook of Regional Science (pp. 1173–1193). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg. https://isbnsearch.org/isbn/9783642234309
Den Hoed, W. (2024). The unfinished cycling city: Embedding age-inclusion in urban cycling futures. Urban, Planning and Transport Research, 12(1), 2335195.     https://doi.org/10.1080/21650020.2024.2335195  
Friedmann, J. (1966). Regional development policy: A case study of Venezuela. The University of California: M.I.T. Press. https://isbnsearch.org/isbn/9780262560025
Getis, A., & Ord, J. K. (1992). The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics. Geographical Analysis, 24(3), 189–206.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1992.tb00261.x
Hägerstraand, T. (1970).  What about people in regional science? Papers in Regional Science, 24(1), 7–21. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5597.1970.tb01464.x
Han, J. W., Kamber, M., & Pei., J. (2011). Data mining: Concepts and techniques ( 3rd ed ed.). Berlin, Germany: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers. https://isbnsearch.org/isbn/9780123814807
Kaygisiz, Ö., Düzgün, Ş., Yildiz, A., & Senbil, M. (2015). Spatio-temporal accident analysis for accident prevention in relation to behavioral factors in driving: The case of South Anatolian Motorway. Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behavior, 33, 128–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2015.07.002
Kerner, B. S. (2002). Empirical macroscopic features of spatial-temporal traffic patterns at highway bottlenecks. Physical Review E, 65(4).  https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.65.046138
Kerner, B. S. (2004). The physics of traffic: Empirical freeway pattern features, engineering applications, and theory. Springer. https://isbnsearch.org/isbn/9783662078928
Kerner, B. S., Rehborn, H., Aleksic, M., & Haug, A. (2004). Recognition and tracking of spatial–temporal congested traffic patterns on freeways. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 12(5), 369–400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2004.07.015
Komarovsky, S., & Haddad, J. (2025). Spatio-temporal graph convolutional neural network for traffic signal prediction in large-scale urban networks. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 32, 101482. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2025.101482
Lanorte, A., Nolè, G., & Cillis, G. (2024). Application of the Getis-Ord correlation index (Gi) for burned area detection improvement in Mediterranean ecosystems (Southern Italy and Sardinia) using Sentinel-2 data. Remote Sensing, 16(16), 2943. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16162943
Liu, X., Sun, L., Sun, Q., & Gao, G. (2017). Spatial variation of taxi demand using GPS trajectories and POI data. Journal of Advanced Transportation, 2020(1). https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/7621576
Mitchell, A. (2009). The Esri guide to GIS analysis (second edition), Vol. 2: Spatial Measurements and Statistics, Esri Press. https://isbnsearch.org/isbn/9781589486089
Mohammed, S., Alkhereibi, A. H., Abulibdeh, A., Jawarneh, R. N., & Balakrishnan, P. (2023). GIS-based spatiotemporal analysis for road traffic crashes; in support of sustainable transportation Planning. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 20, 100836. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2023.100836
Ord, J. K., & Getis, A. (1995). Local spatial autocorrelation statistics: Distributional issues and an application. Geographical Analysis, 27(4), 286–306. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1995.tb00912.x
Peng, H., Shen, N., Cui, A., Cheng, H., & Li, J. (2019). Spatio-temporal pattern of crime in the context of rapid urbanization: A case study in Shenzhen, China. Applied Geography, 103, 37–48.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2019.01.002
Shekhar, S., Jiang, Z., Ali, R. Y., Eftelioglu, E., Tang, X., Gunturi, V. M. V., & Zhou, X. (2015). Spatiotemporal data mining: A computational perspective. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf., 4(4), 2306-2338.  https://doi.org/10.1109/TKDE.2018.2866809
Soltani, A., & Roohani Qadikolaei, M. (2024). Space-time analysis of accident frequency and the role of built environment in mitigation. Transport Policy, 150, 189–205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.02.006
Treiber, M., & Kesting, A. (2013). Traffic flow dynamics: Data, models, and simulation. Springer. https://isbnsearch.org/isbn/9783642324604
Van Wageningen-Kessels, F., van Lint, H., Vuik, K., & Hoogendoorn, S. (2015). Genealogy of traffic flow models. EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics, 4(4), 445–473. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13676-014-0045-5
Zhang, D., Lan, H., Wang, M., Yu, J., Jiang, X., & Zhang, S. (2025). Graph convolutional networks with multi-scale dynamics for traffic speed forecasting. Applied Soft Computing, 174, 112966. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2025.112966
Zhao, X., Wu, Y. P., Ren, G., Ji, K., & Qian, W. W. (2019). Clustering analysis of ridership patterns at subway stations: A case in Nanjing, China. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 145(2). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000468
Zhu, L., Zhang, Q., Jian, X., & Yang, Y. (2025). Graph convolutional network for traffic incident duration classification. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 151, 110570. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2025.110570
دوره 7، شماره 10
دی 1405
صفحه 88-102

  • تاریخ دریافت 13 اردیبهشت 1405
  • تاریخ بازنگری 07 خرداد 1405
  • تاریخ پذیرش 17 خرداد 1405