ارزیابی مدل هاف اصلاح شده در شناسایی حوزه جذب فروشگاه های زنجیره ای شهرهای کوچک (نمونه موردی: شهر بوئین زهرای قزوین)

نوع مقاله : مطالعه موردی

نویسنده

استادیار، گروه معماری و شهرسازی،مرکز آموزش عالی فنی و مهندسی بویین زهرا، بویین زهرا، قزوین، ایران

چکیده

حوزه جذب یکی از مباحث مهم در برنامه ریزی و اقتصاد شهری است، مدل هاف یکی از مدلهای گرانشی است که در این زمینه کاربرد زیادی داشته و از دهه 60 میلادی تاکنون در مطالعات زیادی مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. در این تحقیق هدف اصلی بررسی اعتبار این مدل در شناسایی حوزه جذب فروشگاه های زنجیره ای در شهر بوئین زهرای قزوین می باشد. پس از شناسایی موقعیت فروشگاه های زنجیره ای شهر بوئین زهرا با استفاده از مدل هاف اصلاح شده اقدام به تهیه نقشه های حوزه جذب تئوریک آنها گردید و سپس با ادغام این حوزه ها و تحلیل خطوط شکست نقشه نهایی حوزه جذب تئوریک استخراج شد. در مرحله نیز با استفاده از داده های پرسشنامه ای نقشه حوزه جذب واقعی فروشگاه ها بر اساس تعیین اولویتی که توسط خانوارهای ساکن در 430 واحد مسکونی نمونه اظهار شده بود، تهیه گردید. در نهایت، میزان اعتبار مدل هاف اصلاح شده با استفاده از دو روش رویهم گذاری و استخراج شاخص های آماری و محاسبه ضریب کاپای کوهن مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج داده های تحقیق نشانگر اعتبار بالای مدل هاف در مشخص نمودن حوزه جذب فروشگاه های زنجیره ای می باشد. همچنین تحلیل حوزه های جذب فروشگاه ها نشانگر توزیع نامتوازن فضایی آنها در سطح شهر بویین زهرا است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of the Modified Huff Model in Identifying the Catchment Area of Chain Stores in Small Cities (Case Study: Bueinzahra City, Qazvin)

نویسنده [English]

  • Akbar Mohammadi
Assistant Professor, Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Buein Zahra Technical University, Buein Zahra, Qazvin, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction
Gravity models are models that investigate the catchment areas of commercial activities and other activities at an urban and regional level. The Huff model is one of the prominent models in this field, which calculates the probability of customer attraction for existing commercial locations and the catchment areas of commercial locations. In Huff's original model to calculate the catchment area of cities’ commercial places, two factors of distance and size of the commercial place are used as influencing factors. The travel time index or the distance between business locations and customers was used for the distance factor, and the size of the business location, the area index was used. During the different years, this model was used in studies modified and adjusted by different researchers. Using network distance instead of Euclidean distance and calculating the attraction power of commercial places or other studied places are among these modifications. In all the research conducted in this field, despite the modifications made in Huff's model, no evaluation was done on the output and results of this model. In this research, the main goal is to provide a method to evaluate the results and outputs of the modified Huff model. The secondary goal of this research is to investigate the spatial distribution of stores and their catchment areas from the point of view of urban planning and to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the existing pattern.
Materials and Methods
The methods used in this research are theoretical and subjective. In the theoretical method, after studying the sources (related books and articles), the theoretical foundations and structure of this model were built. In the next step, a map of chain store catchment areas in Buein Zahra city was determined based on Huff's theoretical model and using spatial analysis and network analysis tools in Arc GIS software. The indicators used to measure the attractiveness of the stores (shopping center size) include the size of the store, the number of employees, the variety of products, and the presence of marginal parking around the store. In the next stage, using the questionnaires completed by the residents of the city, their priority of visiting chain stores in the city was questioned. In this stage, the sample was determined using the Morgan method and random spatial sampling, and about 430 residential units were selected as samples. After determining the priority of residents to visit chain stores, the actual catchment area of these stores draws on the map of Buein Zahra city. Finally, two methods were used for evaluation. In the first method, overlaying theoretical and actual map layers, then average, maximum, and minimum indices are extracted based on the theatrical catchment area pixel values in order to determine the degree of correspondence between the actual and theoretical store catchment areas. In the second method, the evaluation was done using the Kappa agreement index.
Findings
In Buein Zahra city, nine chain stores exist that are not uniformly distributed and most of them are concentrated in the central area of the city (Imam, Taleghani, and Valiasr streets). In the first stage, using the modified model of Huff, the chain store catchment area was determined. Generated maps show the probability of residents visiting chain stores. These probabilities varied based on the distance between the store and the attractiveness index. To create a final map of the theoretical catchment area based on the highest probability of residents visiting the stores, the probability maps produced for the stores overlaying and draw break lines. With this method, a map of the areas with the highest probability of visiting each store create. Some spaces of the city are placed in the catchment area of two or more stores according to their location about the stores, according to the equal probability of visiting the stores. In the second stage, the actual catchment area of chain stores was produced based on the questionnaires completed by 430 sample households. Findings of this stage show the city area divided into areas where in each area the majority of households have chosen a store as their priority. Based on the findings of this stage, nine catchment areas were identified for chain stores. To evaluate the modified Huff model used in this research, two methods were used: in the first method, the layers of the actual and the theoretical chain store catchment areas overlaid in the ArcGIS software, and using spatial analysis functions, the average, and minimum and maximum values of the pixels were extracted separately. Based on the findings obtained from this stage, the actual and theoretical chain store catchment areas in Buein Zahra city are compatible, although the degree of compatibility is higher for some stores and less for some of them. The highest degree of compatibility and coordination is dedicated to store number 8 (Korush, branch 1). The second method to evaluate the results is to calculate Cohen's kappa coefficient. To calculate this coefficient, the map of the sample points that used to calculate the actual catchment area (the location of 430 sample households) and the final map of the theoretical absorption area overlaid in ArcGIS software and then calculate Cohen's kappa coefficient. Examining the level of agreement using the calculated Cohen's kappa coefficient shows that the accuracy level in the absorption areas of all stores is above 90%, and this indicates the excellent accuracy of the Huff model in determining the catchment area and its proper matching with the actual catchment area.
Conclusion
In this research, the main goal is to evaluate the effectiveness of the modified Huff model for identifying the chain store catchment areas in small cities. The results of this research are expressed in two parts: the first part, which is based on the main objective of the article, i.e. the evaluation of the modified Huff model, shows that this model is superior in identifying the locations of chain stores in small cities. Results from methods for evaluating the modified huff model (statistical indicators, as well as Cohen's Kappa coefficient); show that the model outputs are close to the pattern of residents' visits to stores in the city. The second part of the results presented is in line with the secondary goal of the research, which is to investigate the distribution of stores and the formation of their catchment areas in the city of Buein Zahra. The research findings indicate the formation of asymmetric catchment areas with different areas in parts of the city. In the central part of the city, the catchment area is smaller, and with the distance from the city center, the catchment area becomes larger.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Attraction Area
  • Buin Zahra
  • Chain store
  • Hoff model
[1] Clarke I. Deconstructing retail location decisions. In Proceedings of the 2nd Recent Advances in Retailing and Services Science Conference 1995; Broadbeach, Australia: 11–14
[2] Anderson J. E. The gravity Model. Annual Review of Economics 2011; 3: 133– 160
[3] Huff D. L. A probabilistic analysis of shopping center trade areas. Land Economics 1963; 39(1): 81–90
[4] Hekmat Nia H. Mousavi M. Application of the model in geography with emphasis on urban and regional planning. Elmenovin Publications 2019 [In Persian]
[5] Huff D. L. Parameter estimation in the Huff model. Arc User 2003 (Oct.-Dec.); (4): 34–36.
[6] Huff D. L. Defining and estimating a trading area. Journal of Marketing 1964; 28(3): 34–38.
 [7] Fernández J. Hendrix E.M.T. Recent insights in Huff-like competitive facility location and design. European Journal of Operational Research 2013; 227:581–584
[8] Liu T. Combining GIS and the Huff Model to Analyze Suitable Locations for a New Asian Supermarket in the Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota USA. Papers in Resource Analysis 2012; 14(8)
[9] Dolega L. Pavlis M. Singleton A. Estimating attractiveness, hierarchy and catchment area extents for a national set of retail agglomerations. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services 2016; 28: 78–90
[10] Liang Y. Gao S. Cai Y. Foutz NZ. Wu L. Calibrating the dynamic Huff model for business analysis using location big data.. Transactions in GIS 2020; 24: 681– 703
[11] Lin T. Xia J. P Robinson T. Olaru D. Smith B.Taplin J. Cao B. Enhanced Huff model for estimating Park and Ride (PnR) catchment areas in Perth, WA. Journal of Transport Geography 2016; 54:336-348
[12] Zhu Z. He Y. Guo X. Zhang Y. Chen J. Improved Huff Model for Estimating Urban Rail Transit Station Catchment Areas considering Station Choices. Journal of Advanced Transportation 2021; 1-11.
 [13] Zheng Z. Morimoto T. Murayama Y. Optimal Location Analysis of Delivery Parcel-Pickup Points Using AHP and Network Huff Model: A Case Study of Shiweitang Sub-District in Guangzhou City, China. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 2020; 9(4): 193
[14] Pan H. Li Y. Dang A. Application of network Huff model for commercial network planning at suburban – Taking Wujin district, Changzhou as a case. Annals of GIS 2013; 19,3: 131-141
[15] Wang Y. Jiang W. Liu S. Ye X. Wang T. Evaluating Trade Areas Using Social Media Data with a Calibrated Huff Model. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 2016; 5(7):112
[16] Ortega J. Tóth  J. Péter T. Mapping the Catchment Area of Park and Ride Facilities within Urban Environments. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 2020; 9(9):501
[17] Zhu Z. He Y. Guo X. Zhang C. Yibang J. Improved Huff Model for Estimating Urban Rail Transit Station Catchment Areas considering Station Choices. Journal of Advanced Transportation 2021; 11
[18] Luo J. Integrating the Huff Model and Floating Catchment Area Methods to Analyze Spatial Access to Healthcare Services. Transactions in GIS 2014; 18
[19]Bruno G. Improta G. Using gravity models for the evaluation of new university site locations: A case study. Computers & Operations Research 2008; 35(2):436-444.
[20]Banerjee S. Muhib K. Khadem N. Chavis C. Optimal locations for bikeshare stations: A new GIS based spatial approach. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives 2020; 4
[21] Minai M. Merchant M. Hedayati H. Application of GIS network analysis in geography and urban planning. Mashhad: Publications of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad 2017[In Persian]
[22] Qazvin Province Housing and Urban Development Organization. The master plan of Buin Zahra city. 2012 [In Persian]
[23] Iran's National Center for Cartography, map of 2000 Buin Zahra city. 2012