تحلیل پیشران‌های اثرگذار بر پراکنش فضاهای سبز شهری با تکیه‌بر رهیافت عدالت محیط زیستی با رویکرد آینده پژوهی (مطالعه موردی: شهر اصفهان)

Introduction
Today, the concept of cities cannot be assessed without effective green space in its various forms. As centers of human activity and life, cities have no choice but to accept the structure and function affected by natural systems to regulate their sustainability. In the meantime, urban green spaces as a necessary and integral part of the single body of cities have a fundamental role in their metabolism, and their lack can cause serious disturbances in the life of cities. Isfahan city is one of the most important cities in tourism in the country and has been known as the city garden for a long time and is one of the most prominent and beautiful cities in Iran. On the other hand, due to the existence of Zayandehroud (flowing from west to east of Isfahan) and its branches, the spatial distribution of urban parks and green spaces in different regions seems to differ significantly. Therefore, in the current research, we try to analyze the key factors and the main driving forces affecting the distribution of urban green spaces in Isfahan. Then its main elements and factors are presented by designing possible scenarios in the future, the path to achieving environmental justice with a future research approach.  Therefore, the main question of the research is: What are the key drivers affecting the distribution of urban green spaces in Isfahan based on the approach to environmental justice in the future (Horizon 1410)?
Materials and Methods
In this study, the research method is applied in terms of the goal and in terms of the way of doing the research. It is a mixture of descriptive-analytical and the explanation of the structure. This is applied as a future research approach and, based on this, we have investigated the most important factors affecting the distribution of urban green spaces with the approach to environmental justice in the city of Isfahan. Information was collected by document method (library resources, scientific journals) and field method (using a questionnaire tool). In this research, the statistical population consists of 28 experts comprising of city managers (mayors, deputy mayors, heads of organizations, and managers of urban areas), members of the city's Islamic Council, experts in the field of civil engineering in the governorate and city affairs office and governorate councils of Isfahan, professors of Isfahan universities, Isfahan Industrial and Isfahan Arts and other universities of this city along with the professors of Shahid Beheshti University and specialists of the urban area. In this research, structured interviews with a number of experts in the fields of planning and urban environment were carried out using the Delphi method to identify the key factors, and then by combining the factors obtained from the interviews and the studied documents in the background of the validity and reliability research of the variables by experts. It was confirmed and finally; the factors were evaluated in the form of a prospective research questionnaire.
Findings
Using field and library studies, the most important influencing factors on the distribution of urban green spaces were identified with an emphasis on environmental justice in Isfahan city, and further, using the quantitative method of future research and the use of Micmac software, the degree of influence or effectiveness of the identified factors was determined. Therefore, the research findings show that among the 20 key factors affecting the distribution of urban green spaces with an emphasis on environmental justice, after examining the indicators and extracting the key influencing factors (direct and indirect), 6 key drivers are "the use of emerging and environmentally compatible technologies". "Emphasis on the use of clean fuels in urban areas", "Attention to the economic status of the strata living in cities", "Using regulations and policies in environmental planning by NGOs in Isfahan city", "Investment in environmental infrastructure areas in cities" and "access to suitable fuel energies in cities" that have had the greatest effect on the distribution of urban green spaces with an emphasis on environmental justice in Isfahan city.
Conclusion
In a summary of the results of the research, it can be mentioned that attention to the use of emerging technologies in the field of environment and investment in this field can have significant effects on the distribution of urban green spaces and proper access to them by citizens based on the approach of environmental justice in the short term planning horizon of ten years. Moreover, paying attention to the economic structure of the citizens and their financial resources can provide a suitable platform for the distribution of urban green spaces in Isfahan. Currently, the neighborhoods, districts, and urban areas in Isfahan have a better situation in terms of access to urban green spaces and are benefited. On the other hand, less benefited areas are facing deprivation in social and economic fields. In addition, they are facing deprivation of access to urban green spaces. In addition, paying attention to the rules and regulations for the location of urban green spaces, relying on the approach of environmental justice, and involving more non-governmental organizations in the field of provision and optimal access of citizens to green space, is necessary. In the end, the opinion of elite urban experts in the planning horizon of the next ten years in the field of main and key drivers affecting the distribution of urban green spaces can provide a suitable guide map for managers and urban decision-makers in Isfahan.