Economic-implementation prioritization of sustainable transport policies in Tehran: A scenario-based multi-criteria analysis with a phased policy approach

Ghaemmaghami Noori, Nader; Raissi, Sadigh; Hosseinzadeh Lotfi, Farhad; Shahabi, Ali

doi:10.22034/uep.2026.589518.1941

Economic-implementation prioritization of sustainable transport policies in Tehran: A scenario-based multi-criteria analysis with a phased policy approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Nader Ghaemmaghami Noori ¹

Sadigh Raissi ²

Farhad Hosseinzadeh Lotfi ³

Ali Shahabi ⁴

¹ Ph.D. Candidate in Industrial Management, UAE Branch, Islamic Azad University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

² Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

³ Professor, Department of Mathematics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

⁴ Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

10.22034/uep.2026.589518.1941

Abstract

Tehran faces the simultaneous challenges of traffic congestion, chronic air pollution, and severe financial and implementation constraints. Under such conditions, the key policy question is not merely to identify the most effective intervention, but to determine the implementation priority, complementary role, and phased sequencing of policies. To address this question, the present study evaluates 11 policy options, including seven stand-alone policies and four combined packages for the 2024-2030 horizon. The study employs a quantitative, two-stage design. First, the outcomes of the scenarios were extracted from an upstream hybrid simulator based on system dynamics, agent-based modeling, and machine learning; the criteria were then weighted using the CRITIC method, and the options were ranked using TOPSIS. In addition, several policy weighting structures were used to analyze the sensitivity of the results. Ten evaluation criteria were considered, covering three domains: transport effectiveness, pollution and health cost reduction, and financial and implementation feasibility. The findings indicate that the low-risk package (Scenario 8) is the most suitable initial option under balanced weighting. Local fleet emissions reduction (Scenario 6) constitutes the cornerstone of clean-air policy, while time-based travel demand management (Scenario 1) is the best starting point under severe financial constraints. The main innovation of the article lies in providing a practical framework for the economic-implementation prioritization of policies and for designing a phased roadmap for sustainable transport under resource-constrained conditions.

Keywords

Air pollution

multi-criteria decision-making

policy prioritization

sustainable transport

Tehran

Subjects

Urban planning

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