Achieving resilience in the Tehran Province is impeded by wicked problems rooted in structural complexities and systemic uncertainties. Traditional planning, constrained by a technocratic lens and a disregard for the political economy of space, has reached an impasse. This research provides a critical explanation of the nexus between structural forces and actor agency, exploring how interest conflicts and power coalitions lead to institutional lock-in, steering the region toward crisis-ridden scenarios. The methodology utilizes strategic foresight across four stages: identifying key variables through Delphi and MICMAC; analyzing actor alignments and conflicts via MACTOR; formulating future scenarios using Scenario Wizard; and evaluating strategic performance with Multipol. Findings reveal that Tehran’s resilience system is inherently unstable, shaped by six primary drivers: economic, socio-housing, infrastructural, cultural, environmental, and security. Actor analysis highlights a profound rift between the state bloc and social institutions, resulting in institutional paralysis. Scenario evaluations indicate a high probability of collapse and crisis scenarios. Strategies centered on smart infrastructure and a knowledge-based economy were identified as the most adaptive due to their lower political friction. The study concludes that resilience in Tehran is a political process of negotiation. To avert the collapse scenario, a transition from technical crisis management to the political management of conflicts, alongside the formal recognition of the agency of social institutions, is an unavoidable necessity.