Introduction 
Examining housing prices, especially in recent years in metropolitan areas, has become an essential concern for managers and urban planners. The housing situation in large industrial cities has always been one of the most critical and complex social and economic issues. Due to their concentration of industrial, commercial, and service activities, these cities attract a large population from across the country and even from other countries. This, in turn, significantly increases the demand for housing in these cities and creates multiple challenges concerning supply shortages and increased demand.
This study aims to examine the status of housing prices in the major industrial cities of Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, and Ahvaz during the years 2002-2023. Due to the influx of migrants from neighboring cities for work, these cities often face a shortage of housing, ultimately leading to an increase in housing prices. Therefore, identifying the factors affecting housing prices in these cities is of great importance. The novelty of the present study lies in the fact that the major industrial cities of Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, and Ahvaz have been analyzed, and the variables used in this study include the number of building permits, the cost per square meter of land, per capita income, the population of each city, construction costs, and the mortgage interest rate for the aforementioned cities and for the years 2002-2023.
The necessity of the present study stems from the perspective that in large industrial cities, due to the increase in housing prices, many individuals resort to the outskirts of cities and informal settlements. These settlements do not have adequate amenities and infrastructure, leading to multiple social and health problems.
Materials and Methods
This research examines the effects of various factors on housing prices in the major industrial cities of Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, and Ahvaz during the years 2002-2023 using a panel data model. Industrial cities are experiencing a high population growth due to job and welfare opportunities, increasing the housing demand. On the other hand, many large industrial cities face land constraints, which significantly affect housing prices in these cities. The variables considered in this study include the average price per square meter of housing, per capita income, the number of building permits issued, housing construction costs, mortgage interest rates, price per square meter of land, and the population of each city.
Therefore, the factors affecting housing prices are generally determined by the supply and demand for housing. In fact, the factors that influence housing prices directly affect the supply and demand for housing, and as these change, housing prices also change. In this study, the demand for housing refers to its consumer demand, and the factors affecting consumer housing demand have been included in the urban section of the model. Housing price is the most critical factor in determining housing demand. After price, the population size significantly affects housing demand. If the population increases, the demand for housing also increases. The third variable is the annual per capita income, which directly impacts the level of housing demand. The interest rate on five-year loans is the following variable that can significantly impact housing demand.
Findings
The results of this research, using the panel data method, indicate that per capita income, construction costs, and land costs significantly impact housing prices in the mentioned cities. According to the model fitting results, housing prices decrease as the number of building permits issued by municipalities increases. On the other hand, as construction costs increase, housing prices also rise. The population factor has positively affected housing prices due to the increasing urban population trend and the influx of migrants coming to large cities for work in recent years. Among the factors studied, the most significant impact on housing prices is attributed to per capita income, and the second factor is the price per square meter of land in major industrial cities.
Considering the high per capita income coefficient, the impact of this variable on housing prices is significant and positive, such that with an increase of one unit in per capita income, housing prices increase by 1.09 units in the aforementioned industrial cities. These results align with reality since they pertain to the estimation of the model in large industrial cities, where a large portion of people’s income is spent on housing. The interest rate of home loans (RA) has become meaningless, meaning that in the cities examined, the loan interest rate does not affect housing prices. The price of land (LPI) has a positive effect on housing prices in these cities, which seems logical.
Conclusion
In the present research, a panel data method was used to examine the factors influencing housing prices in the major industrial cities of Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, and Ahvaz during the years 2002-2023. Initially, the reliability of the variables was assessed, confirming that all variables were reliable. Then, using the LM test, it was determined that a panel data approach could be employed for the analysis, and the results of the Hausman test indicated that the model was of a random type. According to the results obtained from model fitting using the panel data method, an increase in the number of building permits issued by municipalities leads to a decrease in housing prices. On the other hand, as construction costs increase, housing prices also rise. The population factor has a positive impact on housing prices, which can be attributed to the rise in city populations due to the influx of migrants seeking work in large cities during these years.
Among the factors examined, the most significant influence on housing prices relates to per capita income, and the second factor is the price of land per square meter in large industrial cities. This is because housing is considered one of the essential goods in large cities, and people allocate a substantial portion of their income to this crucial commodity. Therefore, changes in income have a great impact on the demand for housing and the changes in its price in the urban sector. On the other hand, due to the scarcity of land in large industrial cities, the price of land per square meter is an influential factor on the price of housing per square meter.