Urban Economics and Planning

Urban Economics and Planning

Identifying Key Variables and Smart Governance Scenarios for Tehran City

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Amir Sheikhi 1
Farshad Noorian 2
1 Master of Urban Management, School of Urban Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Urban Planning and Management, School of Urban Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/uep.2025.511619.1612
Abstract
Introduction 
Due to rapid and unplanned growth, contemporary cities face challenges such as air pollution, traffic congestion, informal construction, and high living costs. In response, many local governments worldwide have turned to “smart city” policies and programs. The emergence of smart cities, stemming from the convergence of advanced information and communication technologies, has provided numerous opportunities and solutions to address modern urban issues. As a technology-driven paradigm, the smart city holds significant potential to tackle environmental problems, enhance productivity, promote economic development, and improve quality of life. Consequently, it has attracted the attention of governments, municipalities, universities, and media outlets. Among the various dimensions of smart city development, “smart governance” plays a fundamental and driving role in organizing and coordinating stakeholders and activating other aspects of smart development. The realization of a smart city is not solely dependent on technological innovations but requires smart governance as a key mechanism to foster the development of other urban dimensions. Despite growing interest in smart governance processes at local and national levels in Tehran, the full and optimal utilization of the transformative capacities of this approach has yet to be achieved. Accordingly, this research aims to identify the key variables influencing smart governance in Tehran and explore potential futures (scenarios) in this domain through a foresight approach. Addressing these questions can be instrumental in advancing and realizing smart governance in Tehran’s future.
Materials and Methods
The present article is descriptive-analytical and applied in purpose. The data and information required for it have been collected using future research methods, questionnaires, and specialized interviews with experts and specialists in urban management and related sciences. This research uses the PESTEL analytical framework to identify and analyze the variables affecting smart governance in Tehran, which covers political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal factors.
Also, structural analysis has been carried out using Micmac software to examine the relationships and dependencies of key variables and determine the main variables. Finally, scenarios were developed using the interaction impact assessment method.
Findings
Initially, nineteen variables were identified across political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental dimensions. As a result of the structural analysis narrowed the focus to four key variables with the most significant impact, including governance approach (top-down versus bottom-up), financing capacity, infrastructure and technology readiness, and transparency and open data. Based on these insights, four distinct scenarios for Tehran’s smart governance by 2050 were developed: (1) Smart Atlantis – a transparent and innovation-driven future characterized by open data, participatory governance, and fiscal stability; (2) Sustainable Atlantis – a narrative of a sustainable smart city with hybrid governance; (3) Atlantis in Crisis – a city with centralized governance, limited innovation, and increasing social tensions; and (4) Isolated Atlantis – depicting Tehran with centralized governance, technological and economic regression, and no progress toward smart city goals.
Conclusion
This study, through a foresight analysis of smart governance in Tehran based on the PESTEL framework, structural analysis approaches, and scenario planning, identifies the key factors influencing the trajectory of smart city transformation. The research confirms governance as a pivotal determinant in the success of smart governance. It emphasizes the necessity of evolving from centralized, top-down models toward more inclusive participatory frameworks, highlighting the reciprocal reinforcement between transparency, open data, and citizen trust as a fundamental principle of smart governance. Despite global recognition of participatory governance, implementing such models in emerging contexts like Tehran faces indigenous political, economic, and institutional barriers. Consistent with prior research on smart cities in emerging economies, the findings underscore financial and infrastructural challenges as critical constraints that Tehran must address. Contrary to idealized models developed for advanced urban contexts, this study offers a context-sensitive understanding aligned with Tehran’s socio-political realities. The future of smart governance in Tehran depends not only on technological innovations but also on structural reforms, multilateral stakeholder collaboration, and adaptive policymaking. Finally, to explore potential future pathways, this research employs cross-impact analysis based on key variables to develop four narrated scenarios. These scenarios provide strategic insights and preparedness tools for policymakers to better comprehend the complexities of the city’s evolving urban landscape. The scenarios are not predictions but are intended to stimulate imagination and consideration of possible future outcomes. The future will likely be a blend of all four scenarios, and other scenarios beyond these may also exist. We live in an era of global volatility. Given the fluctuations in economies worldwide and the rapid emergence of new technologies, cities face unprecedented challenges in achieving effective governance and sustainable development. Addressing issues such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and health crises necessitates a re-evaluation of urban policies and planning strategies that promote resilient and regenerative urban systems. To realize the full potential of smart governance, decisive actions are required. Although the path to comprehensive digital transformation is not without obstacles, bold and strategic initiatives, breaking down barriers, and prioritizing resilience and inter-organizational collaboration can bridge the gap between public services and the evolving needs of citizens, facilitating a new era of trust and accountability. Ultimately, smart governance is neither a panacea for all problems, nor is the smart city an idealized, flawless vision. Rather, this approach serves as a catalyst, reshaping urban management to empower and enhance community services. The ultimate goal is to leverage this solution to improve urban quality of life and reduce the challenges facing cities. By understanding these complexities, Tehran can advance on the smart city pathway with smart governance, positioning itself as a progressive city responsive to both human well-being and environmental health. Based on this study, it is recommended to converge toward a development model that is more advanced and effective than the fragmented initiatives implemented to date.
Keywords
Futures Studies
Smart City
Smart Governance
Tehran City

Subjects

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Urban Economics and Planning
Volume 6, Issue 2
Spring 2025
Pages 224-241

  • Receive Date 13 March 2025
  • Revise Date 25 May 2025
  • Accept Date 27 May 2025