Urban Economics and Planning

Urban Economics and Planning

Investigating the Trend, Direction, and Factors Affecting Land Use Transition in the Tehran Metropolitan Region

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mahshid Sadat Zabihi 1
Hashem Dadashpoor 2
1 Master’s student, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Arts and Architecture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Arts and Architecture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/uep.2024.421982.1420
Abstract
Introduction 
Land use transition means changes in land use morphologies, including the dominant and dominant morphology of a specific region, during a certain period of time due to socio-economic developments. It is a process in which different land use types are spatially involved, and a complex interaction is formed between natural factors and socio-economic development. Multi-level governments are trying to change the morphology of land use. It has reduced emerging contradictions and conflicts, mainly caused by changes in the supply and demand of different types of land use, so that they are responsive to various human activities. The main purpose of this research is to investigate the process, trend and direction of land use transfer in the Tehran metropolitan region. The current research seeks to identify the driving forces of land use transfer in the Tehran metropolitan region and the effect of factors on long-term changes in the structure and performance of land use in the Tehran metropolitan region.
Materials and Methods
Based on the objectives of the research, the current research has a descriptive-analytical nature. The applied paradigm is a quantitative paradigm. Due to the use of numerical data, statistical analysis, dependent and independent variables, and the dependence of research on inductive logic in order to identify, describe and explain land use transition, a quantitative paradigm has been used.
In terms of the time frame, the research is a longitudinal study because it examines land use in two-time frames: the present and the past. The method of collecting data required for this research is library and document study. In order to collect the data needed to investigate the amount of land use transition and the variables affecting land use transition in the Tehran metropolitan region, the data from the statistics centre, the documents, and satellite images were used. In order to investigate the trend and direction of land use transfer, the land use transfer matrix was used, extracted with TerrSet software, and the desired maps were prepared using GIS software. In order to identify the factors affecting land use transition in this area, geographic weighted regression (GWR), ordinary least squares (OLS), and logistic regression models were used in GIS and TerrSet software environments.
Findings
In the last 20 years, the Tehran metropolitan region has been affected by the driving force of population growth and the increase in the rate of urbanization, and as a result, the increase in human activities, rapid economic growth and development. The process of land use transfer in the Tehran metropolitan region is first a decreasing trend for agricultural lands, forests and pastures and an increasing trend for built-up lands and water areas. The decreasing trend of farmlands in the centre and northeast of the region, the decreasing trend of pastures in the western and southern half of the region, and the decreasing trend of forests in the southeast of the region, which is to transfer from agricultural lands, forests, and pastures to built-up lands. In relation to the intensity of transfer, it can be said that in most regions, it has shown a long-term and active trend that in most cities, the intensity of transfer from agricultural lands, forests, and pastures to built-up lands is active, and only in Fardis, Varamin, Ray cities. , Taleghan, Islamshahr, Damavand, Pardis and Shemiranat, transmission intensity is active in agricultural lands. Investigations also showed that active areas with an increase in pastures were observed in the cities of Fardis, Varamin, Islamshahr, and Ray. Spatial changes in population density have had the most positive effect on land use transition in the Tehran metropolitan region. Another influential variable is the slope of the region, which is considered a key inhibiting factor of natural factors. In the central, northwest, and southeast regions, which have a suitable slope in the Tehran metropolitan region, it significantly impacts land use transfer.
Conclusion
From the results of the investigation of the characteristics of land use transition in the Tehran metropolitan region, it was found that the morphology of land use in the Tehran metropolitan region has undergone changes and transformations during the 20-year period, which is the phenomenon of the transfer of agricultural land, pasture and forest to built-up land. It has been formed, which can be considered as a result of incorrect land use policies and planning at multiple levels, which have not been able to balance supply and demand. The process of land use transfer in the Tehran metropolitan region was such that the Tehran metropolitan region witnessed quantitative and structural changes and the distribution of agricultural uses, pastures, forests, and built and barren lands in space. This region has faced a decreasing trend of agricultural land, pasture and forest and an increasing trend of built-up land, including urban and industrial land, which is caused by the increase in demand. In the Tehran metropolitan region, it has been for the transfer of agricultural land, pasture, and forest to built and barren land if the relationship between the transfer of agricultural land, pasture and forest in the Tehran metropolitan region in the period is built and barren of a two-way and positive relationship.
Finally, the factors and driving forces of land use transfer in the Tehran metropolitan region were analyzed using the logistic regression model, ordinary least squares, and geographic weighted regression. In the logistic model, among the ten independent variables, distance from rural centres with an impact factor of 4.207, distance from built-up land with an impact factor of 1.205, slope with an impact factor of -3.001, and GDP with an impact factor of 9175 0/ has had the greatest impact on the transfer of land use in the Tehran metropolitan region. In the ordinary least squares model, population density as a social factor in the Tehran metropolitan region has a direct and strong relationship with land use transition. After that, the slope and height as factors and natural driving forces have a strong but negative relationship with land use transfer in the Tehran metropolitan region. By implementing the geographically weighted regression model, population density variables, distance from built-up land, distance from rural centres and the slope of the area have had more power in transferring land use in the Tehran metropolitan region.
In general, to solve the problems in  land use transfer, land policies should be changed from the quantitative dimension to the qualitative dimension, and the government should take this issue more seriously to protect natural resources and valuable lands. In addition, more attention should be paid to public interests, and a transparent system of land use information and public policy monitoring should be implemented. Also, in order to reduce the excessive transfer of agricultural land to urban and industrial built land, a balance should be created between ecological land and agricultural land with built land, and space allocation should be done optimally. Besides this, it is possible to promote modern agriculture and endogenous development and increase the efficiency of agricultural production. Finally, through stabilisation, exploitation, restoration, modification and protection of agricultural lands, forests and pastures, necessary action should be taken to integrate all types of land use in the Tehran metropolitan region.
In response to the negative effects of land use transfer in the Tehran metropolitan region on rural economic development, additional job opportunities and livelihood support activities can be created to minimise dependence on natural resources. Through rural land use planning and advanced technologies, mass economic production can be formed to prevent the transfer and crushing of agricultural lands, reduce the pressure on the land, and improve the efficiency of lands and natural resources. 
Keywords
Land Use
Land Use Transition
Land Use Morphology
Tehran Metropolitan Region

Subjects

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Urban Economics and Planning
Volume 5, Issue 2
Spring 2024
Pages 180-201

  • Receive Date 30 October 2023
  • Revise Date 21 August 2024
  • Accept Date 21 August 2024