Urban Economics and Planning

Urban Economics and Planning

Designing a Dynamic Model of the Impact of Infrastructure and Technology on the Traffic Flow of Tehran Metropolis

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Seyyed Jafar Tashakori Hashemi 1
Abbas Toloui Ashlaghi 2
Shahriar Effendizadeh 3
Reza Radfar 4
1 Ph.D. candidate of Industrial Strategy, Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Unit, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor in Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Unit, Tehran, Iran
3 Professor in Transportation Planning Department, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran
4 Professor, Management and Economics Department, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/uep.2024.452118.1477
Abstract
Introduction 
Driving behavior refers to a set of actions and reactions that are relatively stable, visible, measured, and predicted by humans in the field of traffic and the use of transportation systems, which are caused by external stimuli, either software or hardware, on how they and other road users move. It affects and can have positive or negative effects on the flow of traffic. In this research, attention has been turned from a linear view of the problem to a non-linear and multifactorial view. This research seeks to investigate driving behavior using simulation based on the dynamic system approach. The main goal of the article is to present a practical model resulting from the design of driving behavior in Tehran city in interaction with road and technology elements.
Materials and Methods
In order to achieve this goal, while studying the literature and background of the subject and reviewing the available documents and data, the most important driving behavior variables were collected and based on this, the dynamic hypotheses of the model were identified and selected. In the following, cause and effect diagrams and accumulation-flow diagrams were drawn and mathematical functions related to the relationship of model variables were extracted. In this research, the opinions of experts in different executive departments were used in the form of semi-open interviews. The main part of the required data has been collected and analyzed from the existing data banks in the traffic related units of Tehran. At the end, after testing the dynamic model using Vansim software, different scenarios were proposed to apply the model. The results of the selected scenarios show improvement in variables related to driving behavior in the short term and its reduction in the long term.
Findings
The results of the implementation of the dynamic model created for two sets of scenarios, one set has two scenarios (including the variables of economic growth and productivity) and the second set has three scenarios (including the variables of investment speed in technology, depreciation speed technology and the speed of technology growth), determined and showed that the greatest impact on the growth rate of automobile technology is affected by the increase in investment in this field; The effectiveness of preventive technology depends more than any variable on the speed of technology development, and in the matter of accidents, although all the changes in the mentioned situations are important and lead to a reduction in accidents, other analyzes showed that this reduction will decrease over time. And its changes will be close to zero (it will not be equal to zero, but it is close to it) and it is necessary to compensate for this by using other variables such as police authority.
Conclusion
The results obtained can be expressed as follows: First, the promotion of order, which can be considered as a function of attention to safety and the promotion of public culture, and can be achieved as a result of the increase in national income per capita, is an effective factor on reducing accidents; Secondly, the promotion of preventive technologies will play a significant role in increasing driving safety and thus reducing accidents, and thirdly, increasing the capacity of roads cannot play an effective role in reducing the rate of accidents and sometimes it will have the opposite result.
Based on this and relying on the introduced model and the findings derived from its implementation, it can be suggested that the more the investment in automobile technology increases, the more products will improve, its effectiveness and growth. Also, the speed of growth of automobile technology can further strengthen the preventive role of technology. It seems that even if the country has a significant growth in its income, it will not be possible to solve the traffic problem through the development of urban infrastructure. 
Keywords
Behavior
Car
Driving
Dynamic Model
Road
Technology
Traffic

Subjects

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Urban Economics and Planning
Volume 5, Issue 1
Winter 2024
Pages 120-136

  • Receive Date 12 April 2024
  • Revise Date 31 May 2024
  • Accept Date 15 June 2024