Urban Economics and Planning

Urban Economics and Planning

The future of spatial development in the western region of Kermanshah province based on the energy industry

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mohammad Hossein Sharifzadegan 1
sahar nedae tousi 2
Omid Piryan kalat 3
1 Professor, Department of Urban Planning and Design, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Urban Planning and Design, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Regional planning student, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/UE.2022.2.04.08
Abstract
In the current era of the world energy market, it is necessary to identify the key uncertainties and drivers that affect the future state of the planned system as an integral part of future research studies in the context of the current turbulent and dynamic environment; In this industry, not only traditional and conventional planning has the final say, but also the political situation and strategies of countries, environmental rules, Therefore, futuristic studies are necessary to identify the uncertainties and driving forces affecting spatial planning based on oil and energy; Meanwhile, Kermanshah province, despite its numerous oil and gas reserves and potentials, should be sensitive to developments in the field of energy; To adopt appropriate strategies in the future, to seek balanced development, increase the level of development and reduce spatial imbalances in the center-periphery. In this regard, the present research has used the scenario-based method of futurism. First, by studying national and transnational documents and foresight workshop, 83drivers in the field of energy industry were extracted; Then21 main clusters were identified by clustering method; Then, using the "effectiveness / effectiveness" matrix,6key (critical) uncertainties were identified; Finally, using the interaction analysis (CIB) method in ScenarioWizard software, alternative futures were drawn in three scenarios: instability, ideal, active and competitive. By applying the essence of knowledge resulting from the illustration of these scenarios, a suitable ground is provided for future sustainable decisions and planning in the province.
Keywords
Uncertainty
Unknown
Foresighting
energy industry
western region of Kermanshah province

Subjects

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Urban Economics and Planning
Volume 2, Issue 4
Autumn 2022
Pages 355-373

  • Receive Date 28 August 2021
  • Revise Date 19 December 2021
  • Accept Date 15 January 2022