The metropolis of Tehran is one of the largest centers of businesses in the country. Despite the importance of these units in economic growth and development, job creation and ultimately improving and increasing the welfare of citizens, not only the position of these units in the economic system remains limited and without a clear definition, but also in related documents there is not a comprehensive approach about that. On the other hand, the legislature at the national level; By drafting and approving laws and regulations point to the need to improve the business environment in order to develop small businesses. Accordingly, changing macroeconomic approaches and increasing the tendency to develop small businesses in the country, requires a new ,knowledge-based, approach relies on increasing the connections and interactions of business units with government institutions. In this study, by examining the internal and external factors affecting the issue of business development in Tehran, the trends and uncertainties of the identified issue have been identified, which ultimately led to the presentation of four scenarios. Studies have shown that each of the scenarios is possible based on the current situation in the country, and therefore it is not possible to predict on the future of small businesses. But by presenting strategies that are feasible in all scenarios, decisions can be made to improve the business environment in Tehran.