Urban Economics and Planning

Urban Economics and Planning

Spatio-temporal analysis of urban traffic patterns in metropolitan areas applying the emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA) algorithm: A short-term (one-week) analysis of online data from Tehran

Document Type : Original Article

Author
Human Geography and Planning Department, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Objective: To identify, analyze, and model the spatio-temporal patterns of traffic congestion in the Tehran metropolitan area using the emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA) approach based on a space-time cube framework. This study seeks to answer the question of what the spatio-temporal structure of traffic congestion in Tehran is and how high- and low-congestion hotspots are distributed across space and time.
Methodology: Online traffic data for Tehran’s road network were collected over the period from April 22 to April 29, 2026 (comprising 259 observation intervals with 30-minute time steps). The resulting dataset included more than 7.9 million records. After preprocessing and constructing a space-time cube, three levels of analysis were conducted: calculation of spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I), high/low clustering analysis, and implementation of the emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA) in ArcGIS Pro.
Results: The analyses revealed a statistically significant positive spatial autocorrelation (z-score = 212.41) at the 99% confidence level. The EHSA identified eight distinct patterns. Among hot spots, a “persistent hot spot” was detected in District 10 and its surrounding areas, representing the most critical congestion zone. An “intensifying hot spot” was observed in Districts 21 and 22, indicating a transition toward worsening congestion conditions. Additional oscillating and sporadic patterns were identified in the middle urban rings. Regarding cold spots, the most extensive pattern was “dispersed cold spots” in Districts 22, 20, and 4. Furthermore, “intensifying cold spots” and “diminishing cold spots” were detected in peripheral areas of the city. Overall, Tehran’s traffic exhibits a concentric four-ring structure, in which congestion intensity decreases from the urban core toward the periphery.
Conclusion: The integration of real-time traffic data with the EHSA method provides an efficient and robust framework for traffic monitoring and spatio-temporal congestion analysis.
Keywords
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Volume 7, Issue 10
January 2027
Pages 88-102

  • Receive Date 03 May 2026
  • Revise Date 28 May 2026
  • Accept Date 07 June 2026